The model begins with each cell as an independent polity. These cells are then endowed with a vector of geographic characteristics, notably a level of agricultural productivity, ruggedness, and climate. We divide the globe into 65,641 hexagonal cells, each with a radius of 28 kilometres. We do so by modelling the dynamic process of state-building and exploring how fractured land shaped inter-state competition in unexpected, non-linear ways. (2022), we fill this gap by providing a quantitative investigation of the fractured-land hypothesis. Hoffman 2015), it has not been formally modelled or tested. While the fractured land hypothesis has been widely cited and much criticised (e.g. In comparison, China’s geographical features led to its recurring unifications.
According to this view, fractured land such as mountain barriers, indented coastlines, and rugged terrain precluded the development of large empires in Europe.
These authors acknowledge that a polycentric state system has static costs such as tariff barriers and more wars but argue that, on the net, it is associated with better dynamic incentives for intellectual innovation and state building.īut what determines these patterns of fragmentation? More concretely: what factors account for the prevalence of political polycentrism in Europe and the prominence of political centralisation in China? A leading explanation of this phenomenon is the ‘fractured land’ hypothesis, most famously stated by Diamond (1997). More recently, Jones (2003), Mokyr (2016, 2017), and Scheidel (2019) have developed this thesis in novel ways. Scholars going back at least as far as Montesquieu and Hume have attributed the rise of Western Europe to its persistent political fragmentation. Why are some parts of the world politically fragmented while others tend to be dominated by a single state? This age-old question has implications for many important topics in comparative economic development such as the origins of the Great Divergence (see Broadberry 2021) or the divergence in political institutions between China and Europe (see Jia et al.
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